2025 BMW Hong Kong Derby Power Rankings, March 21

The barrier draw was the final piece of the BMW Hong Kong Derby puzzle and our panel of racing experts have ranked all 14 contenders based on the form each horse has displayed throughout their journey to the Four-Year-Old feature at Sha Tin on Sunday.

Hong Kong Classic Cup winner Rubylot was the beneficiary of barrier four for Brenton Avdulla and David Hayes, while another key contender in My Wish drew poorly in 14 – much of the early focus will be on Luke Ferraris and what he elects to do from that outside alley.

The John Size-trained trio all fared well with Mickley drawing three for Ryan Moore, 11th-hour inclusion Beauty Alliance getting gate five, and Bundle Award set to commence from barrier nine for Ben Thompson.

The Power Rankings are determined by a panel of 10 Hong Kong racing pundits, with each expert ranking the Derby contenders from one to 14.

1. Rubylot (AUS)

Rubylot debuted in Hong Kong as an early three-year-old in September 2023, having 12 starts for three wins from 1000m to 1400m in his maiden term. He returned with a 1200m Class 3 victory in September and added a 1400m Class 2 win in January. Sixth in the first leg of the Four-Year-Old Classic Series, the Classic Mile, he then swept home from last to win the Classic Cup over 1800m last time out. The highest rated horse in this year’s Derby, both in terms of ratings and from the perspective of our panel, a plum draw in barrier four gives jockey Brenton Avdulla plenty of options: does he ride him as cold as he did in the Classic Cup or does he try to settle slightly closer?

Rubylot finishes right over the top! 💪

An elated @brentonavdulla recorded his first #4YOSeries win with David Hayes' galloper in the Hong Kong Classic Cup at Sha Tin on Sunday… #LoveRacing | #HKracing pic.twitter.com/N23wJCQyH8

— HKJC Racing (@HKJC_Racing) March 3, 2025

E2. Johannes Brahms (GB)

Second in both the G2 Gimcrack Stakes over six furlongs and the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes over five furlongs as a two-year-old, he arrived in Hong Kong with a big reputation. A Class 3 winner over 1400m and a Class 2 over 1600m, he disappointed when finishing last in the Classic Mile but was a fast-finishing third behind Rubylot in the Classic Cup. Andrea Atzeni, who won on Johannes Brahms two starts back, returns to the saddle having opted for him over Noisy Boy. A middle gate will likely see him drop back beyond midfield.

E2. Packing Angel (NZ)

Imported unraced from New Zealand, Packing Angel debuted at the Season Finale meeting in July, finishing fourth over 1200m. Impressive when stepped up to 1400m in a Class 4 on HKIR day, he won two further races at the trip in Class 3. He had his first start beyond 1400m in the Classic Cup, finishing fourth to Rubylot. Joao Moreira again takes the ride and from barrier six he may find himself further forward in the early stages.

4. My Wish (AUS)

One of Hong Kong’s smallest horses in training, he had two starts last season for a second over 1200m down in Class 4. He has won four of his seven starts as a four-year-old and placed on the other three occasions, taking a Class 4 over 1200m, two Class 3s over 1400m and the Classic Mile at 1600m. He was second to Rubylot in the Classic Cup last time out. My Wish has been hard hit by the outside draw, but he did win twice in Class 3 over 1400m from barriers 13 and 14. It is reminiscent of Voyage Bubble two years ago; he won the Classic Mile by leading all of the way, was beaten in the Classic Cup and then was dismissed by most pundits after drawing stall 14, especially given stamina concerns. Of course, he went on to win the Derby after he went back to last. What Luke Ferraris does in the first 20 seconds is one of the primary storylines of this year’s race.

5. Bundle Award (AUS)

Won three of his four starts in Australia when named Prince Prawn. Only made his Hong Kong debut in the lower half of Class 3 in December and his ninth over 1400m did little to suggest he’d develop into a Derby horse. Placed at his second start, another Class 3 over 1400m, before winning a similar race at start three. Flat when ridden handy upon stepping up to a mile but was ridden cold in a Class 2 over 1800m last time out and flew home to score with something in hand. This will be Ben Thompson’s first ever Hong Kong Derby ride and he is unlikely to change the script from his last start, especially from gate nine.

6. Beauty Alliance (AUS)

Was rated 57 at the start of the month, having won one of his eight starts and placing on a further two occasions. A Derby berth seemed out of the question, but adopting more positive tactics up in trip has proved the making of him. He won twice over the Happy Valley 1800m within seven days – a Class 4 on March 5 and a Class 3 on March 12 – to secure his position. How that form will measure up is one of the big questions of this year’s Derby. Alexis Badel will likely hold the early lead from gate five.

Beauty Alliance smashes them! 🤯

Big win from John Size's charge in the finale at Happy Valley to give his trainer and @AlexisBadel a double each on tonight's programme… @Beautystablehk #HappyWednesday | #HKracing pic.twitter.com/qvWsBLfszd

— HKJC Racing (@HKJC_Racing) March 12, 2025

7. Noisy Boy (AUS)

Won one of his 10 starts in Australia but did manage a second in the G2 Tulloch Stakes (2000m). Imported in June, he made his Hong Kong debut in November, finishing down the track over 1400m. At his third start in the jurisdiction, he won comfortably over the Happy Valley 2200m before following up in an extended band Class 2 over 2000m at Sha Tin. Disappointing in the Classic Cup but admittedly was given little hope there. The only course and distance winner in this year’s Derby, Christophe Soumillon will be aiming for his second victory to go with his success on Viva Pataca in 2006. He has drawn the middle of the line and will likely end up just behind the lead.

8. Stunning Peach (IRE)

Won two of his five starts in Europe when named Islandsinthestream. Also runner-up as a juvenile in two Group 1 races, the first at seven furlongs and then over a mile and a quarter. Renamed Stunning Peach, he had three starts last season, winning at his final outing in a Class 3 over 1800m in June. This season, he has been placed on only one occasion from five starts – a Class 2 over 2000m – and was just fair when sixth in the Classic Cup last time out. Karis Teetan, who won the Derby on Romantic Warrior three years ago, will take his first ride aboard Stunning Peach. He faces a tough task from gate 12 and his best hope appears to be if he can find a one-off position, midfield.

9. Steps Ahead (AUS)

Won one of his four starts as a three-year-old, taking a 1400m Class 4 at the Season Finale in July. Returned a winner in a 1400m Class 3 in November before two decent placings at 1400m and a mile. Poor in a Classic Series trial over a mile before returning to form when winning a Class 3 up to 1800m. Outran his odds for a decent fifth in the Classic Cup. Lyle Hewitson retains the ride, but gate 13 is tricky and will likely force him to push him along early.

10. Californiatotality (AUS)

Had 10 starts as a three-year-old from 1400m to 1650m, winning twice over the Sha Tin 1600m. Started the season at the top of Class 4 and has won three of his seven starts despite his inability to draw a gate. Stuck on fairly from a wide gate when eighth in the Classic Cup. This will be his eighth start in a row and his ninth in 10 starts in which he will jump from a double-digit draw. James Orman, who is yet to ride over the Sha Tin 2000m with its short run to the first turn, will also jump aboard Californiatotality for the first time. He may be the most logical alternative leader to Beauty Alliance.

11. Markwin (AUS)

Debuted in October, recording two placings in Class 4 races over 1400m before winning at his third start under similar conditions. Followed up in a Class 3 over 1400m on HKIR day. Has placed in three of his five starts since, but was hard to assess when a luckless 11th in the Classic Mile. Ran second last time out over 1800m behind Bundle Award. He has drawn poorly once again and William Buick, who flies in to ride in his second Hong Kong Derby, will likely be forced to ride him very cold.

Bundle Award punches his 2025 @BMW Hong Kong Derby ticket! 🔥@BenThompson2102 gets John Size's galloper home from the back of the field for a first Class 2 win at Sha Tin… #HKracing pic.twitter.com/erpfaq3dNP

— HKJC Racing (@HKJC_Racing) March 9, 2025

12. Mickley (IRE)

Won three of five starts in the UK, culminating with victory in the Britannia Handicap over the straight mile at Royal Ascot. Has proved something of an enigma through his eight starts in Hong Kong for trainer John Size, winning over a mile at his second Sha Tin start before mixing his form from 1600m to 2000m. Ran home well for fifth in the Classic Mile but very disappointing when last in the Classic Cup. Ryan Moore returns to ride Mickley as he aims to win his second Derby, seven years after partnering Ping Hai Star for Size.

13. Cap Ferrat (AUS)

Remains a maiden through 16 starts in Australia and Hong Kong. Placings in Sydney include a second in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) to Tom Kitten and a third in the G1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m) behind Riff Rocket and Ceolwulf. Shaped as a promising Classic Series candidate when second under topweight in a Class 3 over 1600m in December but was poor in both the Classic Mile (12th) and Classic Cup (ninth). Craig Williams, who rode Cap Ferrat once in Australia and also took the mount in the Classic Cup, will be aboard again.

14. Lo Rider (GB)

Won two of his four starts at 1600m and 1800m in Ireland when named Sharinay. Imported in September, he debuted over 1400m in December, finishing midfield at his first three starts in Class 3. He ran Steps Ahead to a neck when second in a Class 3 over 1800m before finishing fourth behind Bundle Award last time out. Hugh Bowman, who won his first Derby on Werther nine years ago before adding a second on Furore in 2019, regains the ride on Lo Rider again. He will likely try to position him midfield from the inside gate ∎

Expert Panel: David Morgan (Idol Horse), Andrew Hawkins (Idol Horse), Michael Cox (Idol Horse), Steven Ho (Idol Horse), Zoher Abdoolcarim (former TIME Magazine Asia Editor and Hong Kong racing expert), Pete Twomey (bloodstock agent), Grant Courtney (horse racing photographer), Mike Doleuze (Hong Kong form expert), Luke Middlebrook (Hong Kong form expert).

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