The 2025 Hong Kong Derby: What It Means, Classic Letdowns And Who Wins?
Trends, analysis and tips … the Idol Horse team has their say on the race that shapes Hong Kong racing in our latest Racing Roundtable.
The Derby Is A Feature That Shapes Hong Kong Racing. For Whom Would A Win In This Year’s Race Mean The Most?
Michael Cox: The resurrection of David Hayes is nearly complete. If Rubylot can win Hayes another Derby, 22 years after his first with Elegant Fashion, it will return him to the type of God-like status among local owners and media that he enjoyed during his first stint in the city.
That Rubylot was sourced by Hayes and prepared at his family’s Lindsay Park stables in Australia – just like superstar sprinter Ka Ying Rising – would give the popular trainer even more influence when it comes to bloodstock.
Andrew Hawkins: Australian stallion Rubick had three potential contenders at one point – Rubylot, Packing Hermod and Light Years Charm – and even with only one in Rubylot, he has a chance to add a Hong Kong Derby winner to his profile.
Rubick is heading to China to continue his stallion career and Rubylot may be the horse to keep his name up in lights even once he’s settled into his new home.
Jack Dawling: Ben Thompson has had an up-and-down season but many riding careers in Hong Kong have been transformed by just one opportunity and his ride aboard Bundle Award could prove to be a significant moment for the young rider.
With Zac Purton approaching a return to action and James Orman’s licence extended until the end of the season, a Derby win for John Size would show Thompson is made for the big stage at Sha Tin.
David Morgan: Luke Ferraris had a red letter day when he won the Classic Mile, but if the 23-year-old could nail the Derby as well on My Wish it would elevate him to the next level and pretty much cement his position as future champion jockey material.
Which Derby Horse Will Be Highest Rated In One Year From Now?
Jack Dawling: Rubylot may have been well on top at the line over 1800m in the Classic Cup, but his potent change of gear could make him a force to be reckoned with over a mile going forward.
A quick honourable mention also goes to Mid Winter Wind, who didn’t proceed to the Derby but shapes like an exciting sprinter for Mark Newnham.
David Morgan: My Wish has the makings of a top-class galloper at around 1400 metres and a mile. He’s a PPG, which means he arrived in Hong Kong unraced, and since a solid fifth on debut he has not dropped outside of the first three in eight starts, nailing four wins including the first leg of the four-year-old series, the Classic Mile.
That win was very professional, but given that it’s only 10 months since he debuted, he has plenty of scope to progress higher in the ratings. He seemed to peak on his run with 150m to go in the 1800m Classic Cup last time, but back in trip after the Derby, I expect him to be a genuine Group 1 contender before the year is out.
Michael Cox: Trainer Pierre Ng knows Johannes Brahms is a miler and maybe a sprinter-miler at that. Johannes Brahms has been ridden negatively through the Class Series in the hope the horse will settle sufficiently for the Derby. After the Derby, whatever the result, Johannes Brahms will return to 1400m and 1600m races, where he can display more tactical versatility.
Andrew Hawkins: It feels like there is still plenty of upside with Packing Angel, although at which distance he will find his best remains to be seen. He could develop into a top miler of the future and he can still win his way beyond Class 2.
Did The Jockey Club Get The Derby Field Right?
David Morgan: I reckon the Jockey Club has got it about right. A case could have been made to exclude Mickley after he finished last in the Classic Cup, that being his eighth start for one almost-forgotten win and coming close on the heels of a disappointing 10th in a Class 2. But, on the flip-side, his fifth in the Classic Mile gives him every right to be in there at least trying to give big-spending owners the Siu family their first Hong Kong Derby win.
And it’s only right that Beauty Alliance, rated lower but bang in form, is in there ahead of Mondial who had his chance to show something in the Classic Cup and couldn’t. The four on the standby list are where they should be.
Michael Cox: The most contentious decision was to elevate John Size-trained Beauty Alliance into the field off a rating of 77 over David Hayes’ South African import Mondial, who was rated 80. Greg Carpenter and the Jockey Club handicappers got this one right and the tote board will show that. Beauty Alliance will attract support and Mondial may have started triple figure odds.
Andrew Hawkins: You won’t find many people who will disagree with the exclusion of Mondial. While South African protocols may have made it tough to get to Sha Tin in time, the win of Mid Winter Wind fresh showed it was possible to get up and running earlier. Hopefully, the already reduced travel period can be streamlined even further to allow South African horses the chance to make it to the Derby on merit.
Personally, I would have liked to see a horse like Pray For Mir get a start at the expense of Lo Rider, but otherwise it appears to be a Derby field that has the right mix between horses with already high ratings and those who have won their way in with good recent form.
Jack Dawling: In short, yes. While South African import Mondial boasts a higher rating than John Size’s Beauty Alliance, it is nice to see common sense prevail and the latter get the final spot as a rapidly improving four-year-old.
Which Horse Is The Barrier Draw Most Important For?
Michael Cox: My Wish has the toughness and tactical versatility to make the most of any situation but more than most of the leading chances, he has the ability to take advantage of a low draw by being closer in the run. Being nearer to the lead was the worst place to be in the Classic Cup when Andrea Atzeni went too fast in front on Noisy Boy, but will the Derby be run in a similar fashion? If Luke Ferraris has My Wish in a similar spot this time, and the race is slowly run with a sprint home, he could be best placed to take advantage.
Jack Dawling: I’m in agreement with Michael here. My Wish has been a tough nut to crack after finding a prominent position this season and an inside gate will be a big advantage for Luke Ferraris.
David Morgan: It could be Packing Angel, in the sense that gate one was no help to him last time in the Classic Cup. Francis Lui’s galloper doesn’t have the early pace to mix it with the front rank, and racing on the rail last time meant that to find clear running he had to move out seven horses wide before he could get moving in the home straight. That was at a point in the race when ideally Packing Angel would have wanted to be already rolling in the clear with momentum. The lack of true forward motion at the time he was shifting sideways meant that when he was asked to quicken, he was at the mercy of horses with a stronger kick.
Andrew Hawkins: Few horses have had as bad a run of draws as Californiatotality. From seven starts this season, he is yet to draw a single digit barrier. While many of those outings have been at the Sha Tin mile or 1800m where a wide draw may not be as significant, two of them came at the Happy Valley 1800m and the Sha Tin 2000m where wide gates are tricky.
He will likely settle forward and has plenty of tenacity, so if he can draw low and enjoy an effortless run in transit, he is one horse who could sneak into the finish at odds.
Which Four-Year-Old Did This Derby Come Too Soon For?
David Morgan: The balance of Ghorgan’s form at Group 3 and lesser Group 2 level in Europe suggested a Derby candidate, but we won’t know how that form measures up because he’s not in the entries. The German-bred colt arrived in Hong Kong late, on October 5 last year, and showed little in his first four barrier trials before better performances in his next three, the latest of which saw him pass the post in front. That set up Jamie Richards’ charge for a Hong Kong debut on March 9, but he faded out to last of 14. Clearly not ready for the Derby.
Jack Dawling: Enthralled won the same race Massive Sovereign took out on debut last year and it’s a shame John Size’s four-year-old did not have the rating to make the Derby field. The American-bred four-year-old won over 2021m during his pre-import career in the UK and he relished a step up to the Derby distance for the first time since joining John Size’s yard earlier this month. Despite settling in the rear field behind a sedate early pace, Enthralled flashed home in a final 400m of 22.12s to mark himself as a horse to watch going forward.
Andrew Hawkins: Another World would have been a fascinating Derby contender if it came six months later. He looks like a horse who will get 2000m and he’s still learning his craft. Keep an eye on him down in the weights in Class 3 later this year.
Who Has Been The Biggest Disappointment In This Year’s Four-Year-Old Classic Series?
Andrew Hawkins: Ka Ying Rising deserves a mention here, insofar as he could have lined up in these three races – and on raw ability alone, he should have won by many lengths.
It was always highly unlikely Ka Ying Rising would contest the Hong Kong Derby, but an appearance in the Hong Kong Classic Mile would have proven a barometer by which to measure the rest of the crop. That litmus test will come on Champions Day, but it would have added so much more intrigue had Ka Ying Rising made a cameo in the Four-Year-Old Classic Series.
Jack Dawling: When Idol Horse revealed that Mickley was set to continue his racing career in Hong Kong after his impressive Britannia Handicap win at Royal Ascot, it was hard not to get excited for this season’s four-year-old series.
But following a promising win over a mile on his second start in Hong Kong, he has failed to kick on in six subsequent appearances.
David Morgan: Mickley has been a huge disappointment to this point, especially after the false promise of that second-up win, but an even bigger let-down has been Romantic Thor. Romantic Warrior’s owner Peter Lau paid big money for the colt, named Capulet, after he won a recognised Epsom Derby trial, the Dee Stakes, in England for trainer Aidan O’Brien.
Hong Kong racing fans even discussed and suggested new names for the horse online. But his form figures in Hong Kong read 11th, a tantalising 3rd, 13th and 11th. To rub salt in the wound, an off-hind ligament injury forced his withdrawal from a Class 3 over 2000m on Classic Cup day and he is now on the easy list.
Michael Cox: So far, for mine it is Stunning Peach. He entered this season as nominal 2025 Derby favourite and has failed to win in five starts since. The Derby betting will be dominated by milers trying to stretch to 2000m, so perhaps he has an edge, but his form doesn’t look good enough.
The Derby Selection Process Has Come Under Scrutiny. What Changes Would You Make To The Programme Or The Race Conditions?
David Morgan: I’d like to see a race on the Hong Kong International Races undercard framed exclusively for that season’s Derby-eligible horses. As things stand, those horses usually race on that day in the Class 2 and Class 3 races over 1400m, won this season by Markwin and Packing Hermod, and the Class 3 over 1800m, which Californiatotality won. A specific race for that cohort at 1400m or a mile would hook in the international audience and give the Derby wider appeal.
Jack Dawling: A ‘win and you’re in’ race at Happy Valley over 1800m would be a great option for trainers to secure a spot in the city’s most important race. Plus, if the race took place in the first week of March, it would be a useful way to immediately forget the underwhelming Manulife Challenge which takes place at the city track at the end of February.
Michael Cox: The addition of more races restricted to four-year-olds or with priority to run for four-year-olds has been great and I love Jack’s idea of a “Happy Valley Classic” – but what about a “Happy Valley St Leger” late in the season? The Derby comes too soon for many expensive European imports. Perhaps the G3 Queen Mother Memorial Cup fills this role, but a race for four-year-olds over 1800m or 2200m at Happy Valley could provide deserved consolation for big-spending owners that may have missed the Derby field.
Andrew Hawkins: There is only one horse in the field who is a course and distance winner, with many winning their way through at shorter distances. Horses by sprinting stallions like Rubick, Flying Artie, Written By and I Am Invincible are represented here, while more stoutly bred horses just missed out.
I’d add a 2000m three-year-old race at Sha Tin at the end of the previous season. Of course, many Derby aspirants wouldn’t be in town yet but it would be a great opportunity for horses to stamp themselves as a Derby horse for the following season.
Finally, Who Wins And Why?
Jack Dawling: I never thought I would be tipping a horse for the Hong Kong Derby that was once second in the G2 Gimcrack over 1200m as a juvenile. But, that being said, Johannes Brahms keeps raising the bar despite having excuses and he can get the better of Rubylot and My Wish over the 2,000m trip.
Andrew Hawkins: I have to agree with Jack. Even crazier is that Johannes Brahms was second in the Windsor Castle Stakes over 1000m at Royal Ascot, a race that has produced sprinters for Hong Kong like Frederick Engels and Chateau King Prawn but less so Derby contenders. However, Johannes Brahms looks the type who can adapt and – as long as he strikes no issues in transit – the Derby might just prove his race. I don’t think he will be a 2000m horse in time, instead dropping back to the mile, but this might be the one time he’d get away with it.
David Morgan: Johannes Brahms’ juvenile profile doesn’t surprise me: there was a time not too long ago when it was still common for subsequent 2,000 Guineas and Derby winners in England to have contested and won races like the Coventry Stakes and the Gimcrack. I expect him to be right in the mix, but my idea of the winner is Packing Angel, a horse that has barely put a foot wrong. He has improved throughout the campaign, should appreciate the extra 200m, and can improve again after his good fourth in the Classic Cup last time.
Michael Cox: I feel like My Wish is serially underrated. He was a convincing winner in the Classic Mile and he looked the winner 100m from home in a Classic Cup that was run at a frenetic pace that hurt his chances. Most of the key chances will be ridden a touch conservatively to ensure they get the trip and the result could hinge on race position. If My Wish draws a low barrier, he is the one they need to catch ∎
