Which horse, trainer or jockey does BOCHK Race Day matter most for?
David Morgan: Little Paradise is close to being in the last chance saloon as far as proving himself a top-class miler. There’s no argument that he looked sensational winning the Classic Mile in February, but the immediate hype around him as the next big thing was soon scotched: three poor runs in the Classic Cup, Derby and Champions Mile suggested his sit-and-sprint off a slow tempo in the Classic Mile was his only weapon.
But his Group 3 victory to wrap up last term reignited belief. There’s clearly something there, but his one-paced defeat first-up as 1.9 favourite when racing handily over 1400m led to his transfer to Danny Shum’s stable. The Jockey Club Mile is the litmus test: if he can’t measure up here then how can he do so against better rivals at the distance in December? He either runs a stormer to prove his mettle at a mile or he flops again and Shum tries to reinvent him as a sprinter. Either way, it’s D-Day for Little Paradise.
Michael Cox: There is a tendency to ‘follow the bouncing ball’ when it comes to preparation planning in Hong Kong. Once a horse reaches a rating of 110 or more, trainers usually shrug their shoulders when asked about plans for a horse and concede “we’re dictated by the program now.” Brett Crawford has already shown that he didn’t move to Hong Kong to conform to anybody else’s formula. His approach with stable transfers has been unconventional but effective – heading into races first-up without a barrier trial at times – but now he gets to showcase his skills with a genuine talent. Skipping a race with Galaxy Patch might seem straightforward, but most trainers would not have. A Group 1 contender right now would take the South African to another level.
Luke Middlebrook: Jerry Chau is already having a terrific season, but a win on Winning Wing in the Cup or Light Years Charm in the Mile would mean more than just another Group race on his record. It’s not only about securing a good ride on international day, either. The world’s racing media will be arriving in Hong Kong in three weeks, and what better time to get himself noticed? Chau knows how much that matters. After winning the Ladies’ Purse, he told Idol Horse: “There are so many things I want to achieve, but every Group race helps me put my name out in the world – that Jerry Chau can ride.”
Which horse would be the best story if it wins?
LM: Docklands, but I think the bigger story is what a win would mean for the Jockey Club. No overseas-trained horse has contested these November races since 2014, and Docklands would be the first to run in the Cup. If he comes over three weeks before HKIR and wins a Group 2, that’s a pretty good advertisement for the meeting.
DM: Massive Sovereign would be a great story about overcoming setbacks and adversity to get back to the top level. He had the world at his feet when he won the Hong Kong Derby in March 2024 at just his second start in the city. But he has raced only 10 times since and is now with his third trainer, Frankie Lor.
To say the gelding has had leg trouble would be an understatement: he’s had surgery to his left-hind and both front fetlocks, as well as a right-hind tendon injury early this year.
Since Lor took over his training, he has brought him along carefully, taking him to Happy Valley to start this campaign, and he told me he was happily surprised when Massive Sovereign ran well over 1650m and then won there over 1800m, both times in Class 2. The six-year-old’s unlucky run last time in a Group 3 over 1800m sets him up for a big run in a very open Jockey Club Cup. If he wins, he would seal his place in the December Group 1, and that would be a remarkable turnaround.
MC: Light Years Charm cost A$3,750 at the 2022 Inglis HTBA May Yearling Sale, less than a tenth of the A$38,500 Coolmore charged for the Rubick cover that produced him. His dam, Dancer’s Rose, cost A$225,000 as a yearling but had sold for just A$600. He started out as Bretsal for Coffs Harbour trainer Brett Dodson and has now earned close to HK$17.7 million for David Eustace. Another Group 2 on the back of his fast-time G2 Sha Tin Trophy would put him squarely in the International Day picture.
These BOCHK Race Day fields are hardly inspiring. Is it a one-off, or can the Club fix it through the program, recruitment or timing?
DM: The presence of Docklands in the G2 Jockey Club Cup is a fortunate boost for the Jockey Club because without him it looks a weak race for the grade, and that’s down to the lack of depth domestically and the chasm left by Romantic Warrior’s retirement.
Even with Docklands in there, it’s not exactly rock solid, given that he’s never looked like winning in his three starts at 2000m and his form at a mile in Europe has been below-par since his third in the G1 Champions Mile in April.
But having international runners target this race is the way to go. The HKJC team must work hard from mid-year onwards to encourage potential HKIR candidates to also target these races more regularly: perhaps waive entry fees and subsidise travel costs for one or two invited raiders in each race. It would only enhance the sport.
The issue the Club now has with regards to the Cup candidates is that the Bahrain International Trophy is a Group 1 from this year and is worth US$1.5 million all told. That’s where a handful of European HKIR entrants have gone, just a week before the Sha Tin ‘trial’ races, which are worth about US$600,000.
MC: This is usually my favourite raceday of the year but this falls a little flat. Does that mean it is broken or has the run of all-time greats from Beauty Generation to Golden Sixty to prime Voyage Bubble and Romantic Warrior spoiled us? Let’s see what these races produce before any rash decisions but what I agree about is there is room for a touch more international participation. What about a horse that wants into HKIR but doesn’t quite have the credentials? The Group 2s could be the proving ground – they’d add a layer of intrigue and give field sizes a much needed boost.
Ka Ying Rising will start $1.05 again, so leave the Sprint alone. What are your predictions or plays for the Mile or the Cup?
MC: I’ll concede that My Wish deserves to be favourite in the Mile and that Galaxy Patch is a clear second pick but if that is the way the market order lands then Little Paradise is my play. The case that Little Paradise’s Classic Mile win was flattered by a perfect set up for the horse is one well made but the nature of the win still had some ratings experts calling him the new Golden Sixty. That might be stretching things but there is an x-factor there and a stable change could be what brings out the best in a five-year-old tackling a below average group.
LM: I’m keen on Winning Wing in the Cup. The switch to Jerry Chau is the kind of jockey upgrade I’ve been waiting to see on this horse, and the timing looks right given how well Chau is riding. Winning Wing was never going to be at his best over a mile first-up, but he’s back to 2000 metres, where he’s won three of his seven starts and placed another three times.
What headline do you most want to see coming out of BOCHK Race Day?
DM: “Ka Ying Rising Cruises Back To His Best.”
The sport really needs superstars, horses that capture the public imagination and race on at the top level over an extended period of time. Ka Ying Rising winning races and enhancing his greatness can only be a good thing.
LM: “My Wish Blows Mile Rivals Away”
The mile division needs a new hero and My Wish is next in line.
MC: “Numbers dominates from the front, emerging as a new middle distance star.”
Genuine leaders with a high cruising speed can be hard to beat over Sha Tin’s 2000m course – think Time Warp or A Shin Hikari – and hopefully Numbers can unleash second-up in a weak edition of the Cup. ∎
Shane Dye
Hong Kong Hasn’t Crowned A Local Champion In 31 Years. Shane Dye Thinks Jerry Chau Could Be Next.
