The Tokyo Yushun is the pinnacle of Japanese racing – the country’s most coveted Classic, the second leg of the Triple Crown, and at US$4.2 million, the richest Derby on the planet.

The Idol Horse racing experts have ranked 18 horses we expect to line-up at Tokyo Racecourse on Sunday, May 31. We have weighed up form, pedigree and upside to sort the serious contenders from the hopefuls. Satsuki Sho winner Lovcen stands alone as the field’s only Group 1 winner, but behind him lurks a wave of progressive, lightly raced types still to hit their ceiling.

It’s a race with an honour roll to match its prize money – Deep Impact, Contrail, Orfevre, Vodka, King Kamehameha – and this year’s renewal promises to be a fascinating one.

Here’s how we see them.

1. Lovcen

Trainer: Haruki Sugiyama
Pedigree: World Premiere x Songwriting
Owner: Forest Racing
Record: 4:3-0-1
Biggest Win: G1 Satsuki Sho (2026)

As a two-year-old last season, Lovcen won the G1 Hopeful Stakes over 2000m at Nakayama in December, and everyone recognised him as an obvious leading contender for the G1 Satsuki Sho over the same course. As widely expected, he went on to win the Satsuki Sho as favourite. Distance, preparation and tactical versatility: whichever way you look at him, he has very few flaws as a contender, and now heads to the G1 Tokyo Yushun in search of the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Trained by Haruki Sugiyama and ridden by Kohei Matsuyama in all four of his starts, Lovcen’s greatest strength is, above all, his high level of racing sense. On debut at Kyoto, he took up the lead on heavy ground and made all to win. In his next start, the Hopeful Stakes, he settled in seventh before running down Forte Angelo and Ask Edinburgh. Then, in the Satsuki Sho, he reverted to front-running tactics, took control of the tempo himself and completed an all-the-way victory.

It is often said that horses with a strong finishing kick are favoured in the Tokyo Yushun, run at Tokyo Racecourse with its long straight, but in reality, the race has produced strong results for on-pace runners. On the well-manicured turf in May, which often favours horses racing forward, extreme closers frequently struggle to get there. In that respect, Lovcen’s tactical versatility gives him an advantage.

Given that his sire, World Premiere, won both the stamina-testing G1 Kikuka Sho and the G1 Tenno Sho Spring, there should also be relatively little concern about his ability to stay 2400m.

2. Realize Sirius

Trainer: Takahisa Tezuka
Pedigree: Poetic Flare x Red Mirabel
Owner: Yosuke Imafuku
Record: 5:3-1-0
Biggest Win: G3 Kyodo News Hai (2026)

Jockey Akihide Tsumura is enjoying the best season of his career at the age of 40. He has already recorded five graded-stakes wins as of May this year, surpassing his total of four from last year. The horse on whom he will pin his hopes of a second G1 victory – and a first Tokyo Yushun success – is Realize Sirius, a colt he has ridden in all five of his starts to date.

Realize Sirius’s racing style has been consistently forward. He made all to win by wide margins on debut and then again in his second start, the G3 Niigata Nisai Stakes. In February’s G3 Kyodo Tsushin Hai, he tracked the leader in second before taking over early in the straight and quickly drawing clear of the field for an emphatic win. In the Satsuki Sho, he was unable to reel in the front-running Lovcen but still held second all the way to the line.

His sire, Poetic Flare, was Europe’s champion three-year-old miler, and given Realize Sirius’s positive racing style, there are many who question whether he will stay 2400m. However, his uncle Lelouch was a middle-distance horse who won a G2 over 2500m. The Tokyo Yushun has also seen horses such as Salios and Danon Kingly, both of whom later switched to mile races, finish second, and depending on the tempo, even horses with stamina doubts can run into the placings.

Takahisa Tezuka prepared last year’s Tokyo Yushun runner-up Masquerade Ball, as well as the 2023 runner-up Sol Oriens. The leading Miho trainer, seeking to join the ranks of Derby winning trainers, has earned another major opportunity for the second year in a row.

3. Forte Angelo

Trainer: Yuki Uehara
Pedigree: Fierement x Lady Angela
Owner: Silk Racing Co. Ltd.
Record: 4:1-2-0
Biggest Win: 2YO Debut (2025)

Forte Angelo is one horse whose reputation was enhanced despite defeat in the Satsuki Sho. He missed the jump and was forced to race close to the rear of the field, but made ground along the inside and rallied to finish fifth. His final three furlongs were the fastest in the race at 33.4 seconds, and his strong finishing kick should be even more effective at Tokyo, with its long straight.

His sire, Fierement, was a champion stayer who won three long-distance G1 races, headed by the Tenno Sho Spring. However, his broodmare sire is Dark Angel, while his aunt Marsha was a 1000m specialist who won two G1 races at that distance in Europe, giving his female family a more speed-oriented profile. Even so, in both the Hopeful Stakes, where he finished second, and the Satsuki Sho, he stayed on powerfully to the line, and the step up to 2400m should be very much in his favour.

4. Going to Sky

Trainer: Yuki Uehara
Pedigree: Contrail x Goin to the Window
Owner: Field Racing
Record: 4:2-0-1
Biggest Win: G2 TV Tokyo Hai Aoba Sho 

Contrail, the 2020 Tokyo Yushun winner and JRA Triple Crown hero, will have two runners from his first crop in this year’s Derby. One of them is Going To Sky, who won the G2 Aoba Sho, run over the same 2400m course as the Tokyo Yushun, in a race-record-equalling time. He has shown good form at Tokyo both on debut in October and again in the Aoba Sho, and his affinity for the long straight cannot be overlooked.

On the other hand, what also cannot be ignored is the so-called “curse” of the Aoba Sho. Past winners include Symboli Kris S and Zenno Rob Roy, but in its 33-year history, it has never produced a Derby winner. Some suggest that running over 2400m twice in a short period places a heavy burden on three-year-olds, but whether Going To Sky can become the first horse to break that curse will depend on the guidance of Yutaka Take, who is aiming for a seventh Tokyo Yushun victory.

5. Ask Edinburgh

Trainer: Yuichi Fukunaga
Pedigree: Leontes x Honey Trip
Owner: Toshihiro Hirosaki
Record: 8:2-2-1
Biggest Win: Open Cosmos Sho (2025)

Ask Edinburgh has already built an experienced profile, with eight starts to his name, and aside from a G3 run at Tokyo as a two-year-old, he has rarely run a poor race, compiling a consistent and solid record. In the Satsuki Sho, he travelled just behind Lovcen and Realize Sirius before finishing fourth, earning a guaranteed berth in the Tokyo Yushun.

Given that he has held his own near the top in high-level races such as the Hopeful Stakes and the Satsuki Sho, he certainly does not look out of place in the Derby field. However, he may need to find further improvement if he is to finish higher. Another concern is that he has raced left-handed only once, and that came in the aforementioned G3 Saudi Arabia Royal Cup at Tokyo.

6. Congestus

Trainer: Tomokazu Takano
Pedigree: Contrail x Kirramosa
Owner: Silk Racing Co. Ltd.
Record: 3:3-0-0
Biggest Win: G2 Kyoto Shimbun Hai (2026)

Congestus, who remained unbeaten when winning the G2 Kyoto Shimbun Hai, the final Derby trial staged at Kyoto, is aiming to follow in the footsteps of his sire Contrail and become an unbeaten Derby winner. His dam, Kirramosa, won the G1 VRC Oaks in 2013. The way he finds another gear even in the toughest stages before the line, with a sustained and tenacious finishing effort, gives no sense of concern about the 2400m distance.

Since the Kyoto Shimbun Hai was moved to its current May slot, Agnes Flight in 2000, Kizuna in 2013 and Roger Barows in 2019, who finished second in the race, have all gone on to become Derby winners. Congestus has recorded final three-furlong times in the 35-second range in each of his three starts, so he does not possess an explosive, sharp turn of foot. However, if the race becomes a test of stamina, he looks more than capable of becoming the fourth Derby winner to come through the Kyoto Shimbun Hai.

7. Green Energy

Trainer: Yuki Uehara
Pedigree: Suave Richard x Cymbak
Owner: Takafumi Suzue
Record: 4:2-0-1
Biggest Win: G3 Keisei Hai (2026)

Among this year’s Derby contenders, Green Energy, winner of the G3 Keisei Hai, is regarded as the horse with perhaps the most powerful finishing kick. He finished seventh in the Satsuki Sho, but closed sharply with a final three-furlong time of 33.6 seconds, the second-fastest in the race. With the stage now shifting to Tokyo, he is one who should be well suited to the long straight.

In a maiden at Tokyo last November, he tracked the pace in second before unleashing a final three furlongs in 32.9 seconds, drawing three lengths clear of the rest of the field. Trainer Yuki Uehara, aged 36, could saddle as many as four runners in the race, and with victory he would win the Derby in just his third year as a trainer, as well as becoming the youngest Derby-winning trainer in history.

8. Reichsadler

Trainer: Yuki Uehara
Pedigree: Siskin x Krailling
Owner: G1 Racing Co. Ltd.
Record: 4:1-1-2
Biggest Win: 2YO Debut (2025)

Although Reichsadler has had only four starts and is still a one-win horse, with his sole victory coming on debut, he does not look out of place at all as a Derby contender. In three consecutive starts, the G2 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes, the G2 Yayoi Sho and the G1 Satsuki Sho, he has finished in the placings, beaten only narrowly by the winner each time. His reliability in steadily making ground from the rear is a major part of his appeal.

His fourth dam is the outstanding American mare Turnback The Alarm, but there are relatively few close relatives with wins beyond 2000m, and with his sire being the European miler Siskin, there remains some concern about the 2400m distance. If 36-year-old trainer Yuki Uehara and 22-year-old jockey Daisuke Sasaki were to win, both would become the youngest Derby winners in their respective roles since the establishment of the JRA.

9. Bereshit

Trainer: Takashi Saito
Pedigree: Epiphaneia x Chrono Genesis
Owner: Sunday Racing Co. Ltd.
Record: 4:1-3-0
Biggest Win: 2YO Debut (2025)

Bereshit, the first foal out of Chrono Genesis, the “Grand Prix Queen” who won the Takarazuka Kinen twice and the Arima Kinen once, secured prize money that is expected to guarantee him a place in the Derby after finishing second in the Kyoto Shimbun Hai.

In his first three starts up to his runner-up finish in the Kyodo Tsushin Hai, he had raced by producing a sharp finishing kick after slightly missing the jump each time, but in his latest start, the Kyoto Shimbun Hai, he switched to more forward tactics and tracked the pace in third. He was passed late by Congestus, but trainer Takashi Saito seemed encouraged, saying: “I was able to see a new side to him.”

He still has rough edges, and he gives the impression that his full development is still to come, but the finishing kick that saw him close to within a head of Realize Sirius in the Kyodo Tsushin Hai is genuine. In terms of raw talent, he has something that compares with the very best of this generation.

10. Audacia

Trainer: Takahisa Tezuka
Pedigree: Kizuna x Lily Noble
Owner: Sunday Racing Co. Ltd.
Record: 4:2-2-0
Biggest Win: G2 Spring Stakes (2026)

Audacia is perhaps the roughest of all the contenders, but also the one with the greatest sense of untapped potential. In the G2 Spring Stakes in March, he swept around the final corner widest of all, and after entering the straight in 10th, produced a powerful late charge to win. He skipped the Satsuki Sho and will head to the Derby with sufficient spacing between runs.

The concern is his mental immaturity. In February’s maiden (1800m), his second start back from a minor fracture, there were notable moments during the race when he raised his head and resisted the jockey’s attempts to settle him. Trainer Takahisa Tezuka, who also prepares Realize Sirius, rates him highly and told Idol Horse: “I reckon they have the same level of ability.” However, how well he can conserve himself over 2400m is likely to be a key factor.

11. Peintre Naif

Trainer: Tetsuya Kimura
Pedigree: Kizuna x Art Brut
Owner: Carrot Farm Co. Ltd.
Record: 4:2-1-0
Biggest Win: G2 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes (2025)

The shift from the Satsuki Sho at Nakayama to Tokyo could work in Peintre Naif’s favour. He missed his trial due to mucus and finished 14th in the Satsuki Sho, his first start in around five months, but he should improve off that run.

In November, he won the G2 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes at Tokyo, a race that has served as a stepping stone for many future stars, in 1:46.0, the fourth-fastest time in the race’s history. JRA champion jockey Christophe Lemaire has chosen to stay with Peintre Naif in the Derby, despite his heavy defeat in the Satsuki Sho last time.

12. Matenro Gale

Trainer: Kenji Nonaka
Pedigree: Epiphaneia x Desert Ride
Owner: Chiyono Terada
Record: 6:2-3-0
Biggest Win: Listed Wakaba Stakes (2026)

Matenro Gale is one horse looking to bounce back from a heavy defeat in the Satsuki Sho. He was sent off fifth favourite at odds of 10.8, but found himself positioned towards the rear soon after the jump and was never able to get involved, eventually finishing 10th.

Before the Satsuki Sho, he had put together a series of consistent performances from forward positions, so there is a case for forgiving his last run. However, he has yet to race at Tokyo in six career starts, and his mental immaturity could also become an issue over the 2400m distance.

13. Basse Terre

Trainer: Takashi Saito
Pedigree: Kitasan Black x Mambia
Owner: Silk Racing Co. Ltd.
Record: 4:2-1-0
Biggest Win: G2 Yayoi Sho (2026)

Basse Terre drew attention with the sharp turn of foot he showed in the G2 Yayoi Sho,  but a month later in the Satsuki Sho he was unable to get into the race from last place and faded to finish 11th. That run can be forgiven as he was never in a competitive position, but at this stage he still looks immature and gives the impression that he will be better in time.

If he were to win, it would give his sire Kitasan Black a Derby winner for the second year in a row, following Croix Du Nord. His dam, Mambia, won a G3 over 1400m in France, and many of his siblings are sprinters. He clearly has plenty of ability, but he may not be ideally suited to the Derby.

14. Zoroastro

Trainer: Keisuke Miyata
Pedigree: Maurice x Almirena
Owner: Sunday Racing Co. Ltd.
Record: 6:2-2-1
Biggest Win: G3 Kisaragi Sho (2026)

Zoroastro is not a flashy type, but as a solid and consistent performer, he will be quietly aiming to work his way into contention in the Derby. In February’s G3 Kisaragi Sho, he defeated two subsequent G2 winners in Laughterlines and Going To Sky, while he also ran well when finishing second by a head to Peintre Naif in the G2 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes.

The biggest question is the distance. His sire, Maurice, made his name as a top-class mile/10-furlong runner and many of his progeny have been milers. However, his female family, which features the outstanding German mare Night Magic as his granddam, has produced a number of horses who have excelled over longer distances. He was well-beaten in the Satsuki Sho, but it may be dangerous to judge him on that run alone.

15. Meisho Hachiko

Trainer: Mitsunori Makiura
Pedigree: Roger Barows x Amorevole
Owner: Yoshitaka Matsumoto
Record: 3:3-0-0
Biggest Win: Listed Principal Stakes (2026)

Just as his sire Roger Barows caused an upset in the 2019 Tokyo Yushun, Meisho Hachiko will be looking to spring a surprise at long odds. He was not a standout presence during his two-year-old season, but he secured his ticket to the Derby alongside Kiwi jockey Mick Dee by winning the Listed Principal Stakes, a Derby trial, for his second straight victory.

The Principal Stakes is a race that has been won in the past by horses such as Dance In The Dark and Rulership, but it has yet to produce a Derby winner. Meisho Hachiko has shown sharp improvement this spring, but he may need to find further improvement again if he is to make his presence felt in the Derby.

16. Altramuz

Trainer: Kenji Nonaka
Pedigree: Isla Bonita x Dejimano Hana
Owner: Shadai Race Horse Co. Ltd.
Record: 4:2-1-0
Biggest Win: G3 Mainichi Hai (2026)

Altramuz, winner of the G3 Mainichi Hai (1800m), has opted to run in the 2400m Japanese Derby rather than the shorter NHK Mile Cup. In his latest start, the Satsuki Sho (2000m), he dropped out of contention well before the final corner and finished last of 18.

His sire, Isla Bonita, finished second in the 2014 Derby, but his progeny have tended to perform best over 2000m or shorter. Altramuz has shown solid ability at around a mile, but there are still questions over whether he will stay 2400m.

17. Justin Vista

Trainer: Tatsuya Yoshioka
Pedigree: Saturnalia x Pebble Garden
Owner: Masahiro Miki
Record: 3:2-0-0
Biggest Win: G3 Kyoto Nisai Stakes

Justin Vista, who was found to have suffered a fracture in January, is expected to make it back in time for the Tokyo Yushun as his return race. He will tackle the generation’s pinnacle event off a break of nearly six months, having not raced since finishing eighth in the Hopeful Stakes in December.

In November’s G3 Kyoto Nisai Stakes, he produced a visually striking performance, coming from even further back to sweep past the rallying Ask Edinburgh and Going To Sky, but his injury forced him to miss the first leg of the Classics. If he can show his true ability, he is an intriguing contender, but the long layoff is likely to be a significant obstacle.

18. Shonan Gulf

Trainer: Naosuke Sugai
Pedigree: Harbinger x Mi Carino
Owner: Tetsuhide Kunimoto
Record: 4:2-0-0
Biggest Win: G3 Sapporo Nisai Stakes (2025)

Shonan Gulf drew attention last summer when winning the G3 Sapporo Nisai Stakes with a powerful late run, but he has struggled since then, suffering heavy defeats in both of his subsequent starts. He is expected to get into the Tokyo Yushun field as long as there are no runners coming via the NHK Mile Cup, and for Shonan Gulf, this looks likely to be a race in which he will try to find a way back.

This time, Suguru Hamanaka has been booked for the ride. Realistically, it may be difficult for him to work his way into contention in the Derby, but if he can be carefully rebuilt from his run in the G3 Kisaragi Sho, where he was keen throughout, he may be able to show an upturn in form.

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